Russia-Ukraine War’s Strategic Implications

This IAI study offers a holistic analysis of the conflict and its implications for the armed forces of European countries, as well as for NATO, EU defence, aerospace and defence industry in the Euro-Atlantic area. The first section of the document investigates the key features of the conflict across the five operational domains: land, naval, air, space and cyber. It also assesses allied military supplies to Ukraine and the defence industry’s difficulties in Europe and US to ramp up production as required by the war. In the second section, the study discusses a range of direct and indirect implications of the conflict. In the NATO context, the overarching priority is on collective deterrence and defence with consequences on the other core tasks of the Atlantic Alliance, as well as on capability targets and allied armed forces’ deployment. In the EU, strategic autonomy is evolving into a “open” concept and new instruments and funds have been launched, as European defence needs to deal with the Russian threat. Changes in the defence policy of major European countries are then summarised, as well as developments in US procurement and industrial strategy. A specific focus is devoted to nuclear deterrence in light of a conflict initiated by a nuclear power. The conclusions rather dive on recommendations for Italian defence policy. The paper is the result of the joint effort of a research team coordinated by IAI’s Defence Program. Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it aims to contribute to understanding that dramatic turning point for Euro-Atlantic security.