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Russia-Ukraine War’s Strategic Implications [1]

Altri paper e articoli [2]

Russia-Ukraine War’s Strategic Implications

[3]
Editors:
Alessandro Marrone [4]
Authors:
Elio Calcagno [5]
Vincenzo Camporini [6]
Ottavia Credi [7]
Seamus P. Daniels [8]
Salvatore Farina [9]
Michelangelo Freyrie [10]
Alessandro Marrone [4]
Maria Vittoria Massarin [11]
Karolina Muti [12]
Michele Nones [13]
Stefano Silvestri [14]
20/02/2024

This IAI study offers a holistic analysis of the conflict and its implications for the armed forces of European countries, as well as for NATO, EU defence, aerospace and defence industry in the Euro-Atlantic area. The first section of the document investigates the key features of the conflict across the five operational domains: land, naval, air, space and cyber. It also assesses allied military supplies to Ukraine and the defence industry’s difficulties in Europe and US to ramp up production as required by the war. In the second section, the study discusses a range of direct and indirect implications of the conflict. In the NATO context, the overarching priority is on collective deterrence and defence with consequences on the other core tasks of the Atlantic Alliance, as well as on capability targets and allied armed forces’ deployment. In the EU, strategic autonomy is evolving into a “open” concept and new instruments and funds have been launched, as European defence needs to deal with the Russian threat. Changes in the defence policy of major European countries are then summarised, as well as developments in US procurement and industrial strategy. A specific focus is devoted to nuclear deterrence in light of a conflict initiated by a nuclear power. The conclusions rather dive on recommendations for Italian defence policy. The paper is the result of the joint effort of a research team coordinated by IAI’s Defence Program. Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it aims to contribute to understanding that dramatic turning point for Euro-Atlantic security.

9788893683159.pdf [3]

Details

  • Details

    Rome, IAI, Februry 2024, 156 p.
  • In:
    Altri paper e articoli [2]
  • ISBN/ISSN/DOI:
    978-88-9368-315-9

Table of contents

Foreword, by the Italian Chief of Defence Staff, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, p. 4-5
Introduction, by Alessandro Marrone, p. 6-10

Part one: The strategic implications of a large-scale and high-intensity war in Europe
1. The land domain, by Michelangelo Freyrie and Salvatore Farina, p. 12-25
2. The air domain, by Alessandro Marrone and Vincenzo Camporini, p. 26-35
3. The naval domain, by Elio Calcagno, p. 36-44
4. The space domain, by Karolina Muti and Maria Vittoria Massarin, p. 45-55
5. The cyber domain, by Ottavia Credi, p. 56-64
6. The industrial dimension, by Michelangelo Freyrie, p. 65-75

Part two: The strategic implications of a Russian war in Europe
7. NATO and a reinforced collective defence, by Elio Calcagno and Alessandro Marrone, p. 77-85
8. The reaction in major European countries, by Michelangelo Freyrie, p. 86-97
9. EU defence and strategic autonomy, by Karolina Muti and Stefano Silvestri, p. 98-106
10. The implications for European defence industry, by Michelangelo Freyrie and Michele Nones, p. 107-116
11. The US reaction in terms of procurement and defence industrial policy, by Seamus P. Daniels, p. 117-126
12. Nuclear deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation, by Ottavia Credi and Stefano Silvestri, p. 127-135

Conclusions and implications for Italy, by Alessandro Marrone and Michele Nones, p. 136-150
List of acronyms, p. 151-157

Summary: Le implicazioni strategiche della guerra in Ucraina per l’Italia [15]

Source URL:https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/c09/russia-ukraine-wars-strategic-implications

Links
[1] https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/c09/russia-ukraine-wars-strategic-implications [2] https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/lista/all/other-papers-and-articles [3] https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/9788893683159.pdf [4] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/alessandro-marrone [5] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/elio-calcagno [6] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/vincenzo-camporini [7] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/ottavia-credi [8] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/seamus-p-daniels [9] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/salvatore-farina [10] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/michelangelo-freyrie [11] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/maria-vittoria-massarin [12] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/karolina-muti [13] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/michele-nones [14] https://www.iai.it/en/persone/stefano-silvestri [15] https://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/9788893683159_sintesi.pdf