The collapse of the regional order in the aftermath of the Arab Spring has transformed the Mediterranean into a basin of persistent instability, negatively affecting the fragile balance between the Allies’ internal and external security. Instability in the southern neighbourhood of the Alliance is indeed linked on the one hand to the terrorist threat and on the other to the migration crisis affecting Europe. NATO is already engaged in several ways in its southern neighbourhood: the capacity-building activities with partners such as Jordan or Tunisia; the maritime security operation Sea Guardian launched in November 2016 in the Mediterranean Sea; the recent establishment in the Joint Force Command Naples of a “hub” to coordinate intelligence, counter terrorism and defence capacity building activities. Against this background, a step forward would be to use the whole NATO toolbox as a politico-military alliance to address two key factors of instability, which are intimately interlinked. On the one hand, the clash of regional powers which use force, covertly or openly, to protect their interests and extend their influence. On the other, the lack of state control over certain countries, because of civil war and/or the collapse of the statehood, such as in Syria, Libya, Yemen.
Italian version of “Projecting Stability in NATO’s Southern Neighbourhood”, published by the NATO Defense College as NDC Conference Report No. 3/2017 (July 2017). Report of the international conference “NATO and the Crises South of Europe: Projecting Stability on NATO Southern Neighbourhood”, Rome, 14 March 2017.
1. La Nato e il suo vicinato meridionale: tra consenso e coerenza
2. Scenari d’instabilità nel Medio Oriente e in Nord Africa
2.1 Il deterioramento della situazione nella regione e il ruolo degli attori principali
2.2 Il fenomeno della radicalizzazione e dei “returnees”
3. Quale ruolo Nato per proiettare stabilità nel vicinato meridionale?
3.1 L’attuale ruolo dell’Alleanza: un insieme di attività diverse e limitate
3.2 Elementi per una riflessione strategica Nato sulla proiezione di stabilità
3.3 Le capacità e gli aspetti industriali dell’azione alleata nella regione
Conclusioni: sfide di lungo termine, questioni aperte