This paper explores how the current dynamics in the energy market sector affect, and are affected by, the interactions between the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the global order. In particular, it aims to answer the overarching question: “Is MENA peripheral to or embedded in global dynamics in relation to energy?” To do so, the paper builds on the methodology and concept paper issued by the MENARA consortium in November 2017 and particularly seeks to address the research questions identified in the paper. After presenting an overview of the main global and regional energy trends, the paper analyses the current relationships between the key global energy players and the MENA countries at policy, industry and market levels. It discusses the role of critical actors that have an influence on the MENA energy landscape, and identifies the main hotspots for discussion.
1. Global Energy Trends and Dynamics
1.1 Growing Energy Demand Driven Mainly by China and India
1.2 Increasing Role for Unconventional Fossil Fuel Sources and LNG
1.3 Renewables Are Leading the Decarbonization Efforts of the Power Sector
1.4 Impressive Growth in Electric Vehicles
2. Regional Energy Trends
2.1 Higher Energy Demand Growth Rate Than the Global Average
2.2 An Energy System Still Heavily Reliant on Fossil Fuels Though Gradually Integrating Renewables
3. Identification of Hotspots
3.1 How Will Global Energy Trends Affect the Region – and Vice Versa?
3.2 The Region’s Role in the Oil and Natural Gas Markets in Light of the Increasing Importance of Unconventional Fossil Fuel Sources, and the Impact of Electric Mobility on Oil Demand
3.3 What Is Likely to Be the Impact of Shrinking Export Levels and Decreasing Oil Prices on State Revenues and Policies in the Future?
3.4 How Can Renewable Energy Sources Help MENA Countries Retain Their Leadership Position in Global Energy Markets?
Annex: Selected MENA oil exporting countries’ official diversification strategies