Main Drivers and Policy Options for a Differentiated EU: A Scenario-Based Exercise
The rise of differentiation is one of the most enduring, if not defining, features of the EU and one of the most crucial matters to address in discussing the future of the Union. Hence, the central question is not whether there will be a differentiated Europe, but how the differentiation mechanisms across policy areas will affect EU future developments over time. Will they contribute to the EU’s fragility or, on the contrary, could they enhance the Union’s resilience by introducing a useful degree of flexibility? Against this backdrop, we engaged a group of experts composed of stakeholders from EU and national institutions and research centres at the DiCE Scenario Marathon, which was held in Brussels on 6–7 October 2022. The main results of that exercise are presented in this paper, further developing the underlying opportunities and threats and available strategic options for stakeholders.
1. Scenarios of a differentiated Europe in the context of war
2. Differentiated EU 2032: Main drivers of integrative and disintegrative scenarios
2.1 Main drivers of disintegrative scenarios
2.2 Main drivers of integrative scenarios
3. Opportunities and threats of differentiation and key strategic options