Looking Through the Fog of Brexit: Scenarios and Implications for the European Defence Industry

By looking “through the fog” of Brexit, this analysis highlights what could be its major implications on the European defence landscape while acknowledging that, given the complexity and uniqueness of the situation, drawing a clear picture of future EU­UK relationships would be a guessing game at this stage. Accordingly, the study has been built around three different scenarios, ranging from best to average, to worse-case – or, as described in this study: “A deep and comprehensive partnership”, “A tailored and complicated partnership” and “Open competition”. Each of them has a specific focus on the likely implications for the European defence landscape, and has been detailed by pointing out possible effects on different areas – namely, research and development activities, industrial cooperation, the European defence equipment market, EU institutions and initiatives, multilateral frameworks such as ESA, LoI/FA, OCCAR and NATO as well as bilateral relations among major European countries.

Presented at the event “Brexit: scenari e implicazioni per l’industria europea della difesa”, Rome, 4 July 2018.

Rome, IAI, July 2018, 75 p.
Publication date: 

1. Brexit, and R&D activities in the defence sector

1.1 European defence R&D activities: The state of the art
1.2 Assessing Brexit implications on defence R&D: Scenarios “on the table”
Scenario A: “A deep and comprehensive partnership”
Scenario B: “A tailored and complicated partnership”
Scenario C: “Open competition”
2. Brexit and defence-sector industrial cooperation
2.1 European defence-sector industrial cooperation: The state of the art
2.2 Assessing Brexit’s possible impact on defence-sector industrial cooperation
2.3 The role of the EDF, EDA and PeSCo in Scenarios A, B and C
3. Brexit and the European defence market
3.1 The EU regulatory framework for the defence market: The state of the art
3.2 Assessing Brexit’s potential effects on the European defence-equipment market
Defence Procurement Directive 2009/81
Directive 2009/43 on intra-EU transfers of defence-related products
Council Common Position 2008/944/CFSP
4. Brexit and multilateral frameworks
4.1 The Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR)
4.2 The Letter of Intent/Framework Agreement (LoI/FA)
4.3 The European Space Agency (ESA)
4.4 NATO
5. Brexit, EDA and other EU initiatives
5.1 EDA and possible Brexit implications
5.2 PeSCo, CARD and possible implications of Brexit
6. Brexit and bilateral frameworks
6.1 Beyond the Lancaster House Treaties: Towards renewed bilateralism?

Research area