The International Spectator, Vol. 48, No. 3, September 2013

Sezioni speciali su Interdependence in the Global Economy e Changing Dynamics around the Mediterranean

Fear of the Future: Russia in the Global Economy in the Next Few Years Free
Recent Publications Free

Numero: 
48/3
Data pubblicazione: 
15/09/2013

Opinions

The Eurozone Crisis: A Crisis of Politics, Not Just Economics
Vivien A. Schmidt
The economic policies of the eurozone crisis, generally presented in apolitical terms, are political both in their underlying principles and in their effects. The EU's 'policy without politics', based on ordo-liberal ideas for macroeconomic austerity and neo-liberal ideas for structural reform, has left the member states with 'politics without policy', in which dissatisfied citizens have had little recourse. This has led to increasing political disaffection, polarisation, and Euroscepticism. Proposals to politicise so as to legitimise the EU by electing the Commission President hold some promise, in contrast to election of the Council President. But the danger, given the eurozone crisis, is that such elections will only politicise so as to delegitimise.
Keywords: European Union, democratic deficit, eurozone crisis
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Time for Tough Love in Transatlantic Relations
Anand Menon
The furore that greeted news that negotiations were to start on a transatlantic free trade agreement revealed not only the potential importance of any putative deal, but also the tendency of Europeans to view international politics almost uniquely in economic terms. This neglect of security and broader geostrategic issues is short-sighted and dangerous. It is precisely the liberal world order in place since the Second World War that has allowed Europeans to develop their economic potential. Leaving it to the United States to preserve that order is an increasingly problematic strategy, with the US ever more reluctant to police the world in the way it once did. The US has, for many years, asked its partners to contribute more to the preservation of common security interests. Given the failure of these attempts to date, it might be time for Washington to resort to tougher tactics in an attempt to entice Europeans out of their geostrategic retirement.
Keywords: NATO, transatlantic relations, EU external relations, international security
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The 'TTIP-ing Point': How the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Could Impact European Defence
Daniel Fiott
The European Union and the United States are on the verge of agreeing to a transatlantic free trade agreement. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is aimed at boosting EU and US economic growth, but the negotiating partners have not excluded the defence sector from negotiations. Europe is at a tipping point regarding the rationale for its defence-industrial integration efforts. Any TTIP extending to the defence sector will raise questions about the nature of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, and, crucially, how it impacts the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Common Security and Defence Policy.
Keywords: TTIP, EDTIB, CSDP, NATO
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Rejoinder

Developing a New Type of Relationship Between China and the US
Zhu Liqun
This rejoinder to Daniel Twining's article in the last issue (June 2013) of The International Spectator argues that both China and the United States recognise how important their relationship is for the world and the Asia-Pacific in particular. But the risk of tension on the security front has increased recently due to the US policy toward maritime disputes that has actually involved meddling between the parties involved, and its 'pivot' to Asia which targets China with more military engagement in the region. The China-US relationship has never been an easy one with the US certain of its primacy and China proud of its glorious past, which almost makes a conflictual power transition a self-fulfilling prophecy. Management of the relationship is the key for both countries to bring about more cooperation and to rein in competition. Co-evolution, a new type of relationship among major countries, is the only way out, in which the logic of interaction is 'live-and-let-live' rather than mors tua, vita mea.
Keywords: US-China relations, maritime disputes, pivot to Asia, new-type relationship
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Essays
Interdependence in the Global Economy

Fear of the Future: Russia in the Global Economy in the Next Few Years
Philip Hanson
The Russian economy, though so far in better shape than Europe, is facing the possibility of very slow growth in the near future. Its tendency to volatility was demonstrated in 2008-09, when Russian GDP fell more than that of any other large country. Looking at that experience and at current concerns, it seems that Russia has both demand-side (slow world growth, uncertain future oil prices) and supply-side (falling labour-force) problems. The continuing failure to provide secure property rights for business probably compounds these difficulties.
Keywords: Russia, oil, demography, rule of law
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China, the Interdependent Giant, and the Global Economic Crisis
Thomas G. Moore
The global economic crisis revealed China to be an interdependent giant, one whose 'rise' was undeniable but also one whose deepening participation in transnational production sharing and network trade made it highly susceptible to an external shock. China weathered the storm relatively well - avoiding a recession, in particular - not because it had 'decoupled' from the G7 economies but because its stimulus measures were unusually swift and powerful. One cost, however, has been a worsening domestic imbalance between investment and consumption that carries a heightened risk of asset price inflation, non-performing loans and destabilising levels of local government debt. Meanwhile, China's ties to the world economy have not fundamentally changed since the crisis began. Despite stirring leader rhetoric and summit declarations, the BRICS have made only modest progress in meeting their goals. East Asia, North America and Europe remain China's principal trade partners, and cross-border production chains connecting these regions remain the dominant mode of China's incorporation into the world economy.
Keywords: China, global economic crisis, trade and economic interdependence, BRICS
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Changing Dynamics around the Mediterranean

Turkey's Kurdish Gamble
Nathalie Tocci
Relations between Turkey and Northern Iraq have evolved at a breathtaking pace, with Turkish policies currently bolstering the KRG's drift towards independence, a prospect considered unthinkable in Ankara only a few years ago. Energy politics is an important component of this puzzle, but Ankara's strategic choice can only be understood against the backdrop of Iraq's deepening sectarianisation, the unfolding civil war in Syria and the dynamics in Turkey's own Kurdish question. The Turkish government is pursuing a high risk/high gain strategy. A more democratic Turkey, in partnership with the KRG, would be best placed to hedge against the centrifugal sectarian trends afflicting its southern neighbours. It is far more likely that Turkey will win its gamble with the support of the European Union.
Keywords: Turkey, Iraq, Kurdish Regional Government, Kurdish question
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The Malian Crisis and its Actors
Dario Cristiani and Riccardo Fabiani
The structural problems characterising Mali interlocked with the dynamics of crisis triggered by the war in Libya in 2011, causing the collapse of one of the few African democracies. The Tuareg rebellion of 2012, the coup d'état and the Islamist takeover of Northern Mali were the three key phases of this crisis, which pushed France - the former colonial patron - to intervene military. After analysing the major local actors involved in the crisis, the article critically analyses the engagement of the EU in the crisis.
Keywords: Mali, EU, France, Tuareg, terrorism, Islamism, Sahel
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US and EU Human Rights and Democracy Promotion since the Arab Spring. Rethinking its Content, Targets and Instruments
Daniela Huber
The momentous changes in the Middle East and North Africa have brought the issue of human rights and democracy promotion back to the forefront of international politics. The new engagement in the region of both the US and the EU can be scrutinised along three dimensions: targets, instruments and content. In terms of target sectors, the US and EU are seeking to work more with civil society. As for instruments, they have mainly boosted democracy assistance and political conditionality, that is utilitarian, bilateral instruments of human rights and democracy promotion, rather than identitive, multilateral instruments. The content of human rights and democracy promotion has not been revised.
Keywords: US, EU, human rights and democracy promotion, Arab Spring
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***

Migrant Smuggling between Two Logics: Migration Dynamics and State Policies
Jeroen Doomernik
Migration processes are driven by forces that are by their very nature difficult to address with government policies, especially when these are aimed at control and restriction. Yet, in response to domestic and international policies, governments, jointly and individually, seek to intervene forcefully in certain types of migration. Paradoxically, these interventions by and large go against the logic inherent in migration processes and thus have perverse effects: they do little to reduce migration and instead create a market for human smuggling. The thrust of current policy development is in the direction of further criminalisation. It is argued that this is not the most sensible course of action.
Keywords: human smuggling, trafficking, migration policies, migration processes
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Book Reviews

European Fears - and Hopes - for a Risen China
Nicola Casarini
Review of: Geldmacht China. Wie der Aufstieg des Yuan Euro und Dollar schwächt, by Frank Sieren, Hanser, 2013
China ¿Dragón o parásito?, by Julián Pavón, Plataforma Editorial, 2012
Aussenpolitik und Aussenwirtschaft der Volksrepublik China, by Dirk Schmidt and Sebastian Heilmann, Springer VS, 2012
Tra poco la Cina. Gli equilibri del mondo prossimo venturo, by Davide Cucino, Bollati Boringhieri, 2012
Que veut la Chine? De Mao au capitalisme, by François Godement, Jacob, 2012
Restless empire. China and the world since 1750, by Odd Arne Westad, Basic Books, 2012
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Portrait of an Accidental Autocrat
Pavel K. Baev
Review of: Mr. Putin. Operative in the Kremlin, by Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy, Brookings Institution Press, 2013
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Recent Publications
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