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Running in Circles: How Europe’s Quest for Autonomy Creates New Dependencies
The strategic challenges faced by the European Union have prompted calls for greater strategic autonomy in a variety of forms, from European sovereignty to ‘open strategic autonomy’ and economic security. While EU efforts have succeeded in strengthening European capabilities, these are still insufficient to prevent major disruptions in the face of conflict or prolonged crises. Diversification strategies reduce vulnerabilities without eliminating dependency, and preventive and retaliatory capacities are uneven and contingent on temporary political consensus. Structural factors, including Europe’s lag in technology development and declining global economic weight, have combined with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the possibility of US disengagement and China’s assertive trade policies to exacerbate fragilities. Institutional constraints and weak political consensus further limit transformative reforms. Continued reliance on the United States, even as Europe diversifies away from unreliable partners, is creating enduring strategic constraints. Strengthening EU autonomy will require political investment in a long-term, epochal project to translate capabilities into capacity for more independent action and to arrest Europe’s strategic decline.
The article was produced as part of the project ‘European strategic autonomy and the challenge of new green and digital technologies’ funded by Fondazione CSF and Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo.
