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Mapping Scenarios of Differentiated EUrope 2025–2035


While the European Commission has tried to embed strategic foresight and scenario-building practices into EU policy-making, future-oriented analyses still remain at the margin of European public discussion and academic debates within political science and EU studies. An exception is the recent body of studies on EU differentiated integration, which developed in reaction to the traumatic Brexit event and the ensuing debate on the future of Europe, collected by the DiCE project through the online portal DifferentiGate. This paper presents the actual mapping of scenario studies included in the portal, considering the 259 projections of possible EU trajectories that are included among the studies under consideration. They are articulated in a period of ten years, approximatively between 2025 and 2035, and variate across various modes of differentiation/integration and policy areas. The scenario mapping is a heuristic tool that aims to provide inputs for scenario-based exercises providing strategic foresight for policy-planners and policy-makers.

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