Turkey's actions in the South Caucasus face serious limitations as long as it has no direct influence over the dynamics of conflict settlement. Turkey has the potential to support transformation and reform within the societies of the South Caucasus through soft power. The current state of Turkey’s relations with Armenia will keep on seriously curtailing Turkey's outreach in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is a stakeholder in Turkish-Armenian relations and Turkey, because of its inability to proceed further with its bilateral agenda with Armenia, has become a stakeholder in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan's leverage on Turkey appears to be more and more influential. The importance of the notion of Turkishness in national politics is an important factor in assessing the strength of pro-Azeri feeling. The Kurdish problem is today a major political challenge. It is the most powerful dynamic underpinning the questioning and progressive redefinition of national identity.
Revised version of a paper presented at the conference on "Azerbaijan in a Multipolar World: Challenges and Opportunities", Rome, 30 January 2013.
Paper produced within the framework of the project "Azerbaijan, Caucasus and the EU: Towards Close Cooperation? ".
1. Turkey and the security situation in the South Caucasus
2. Turkish-Azerbaijani security relations
3. The development of Azerbaijani leverage on Turkey
4. The Azeri lobby in Turkish society: solidarity with Azerbaijan as a breeding ground for nationalism
5. Turkish-Armenian reconciliation at societal level
6. The peace process with the Kurds as a decisive factor