Energy and Climate Security Priorities and Challenges in the Changing Global Energy Order

Global energy markets are facing an era of extensive change through a radical process of transformation known as the “energy transition”, which ranges from the unprecedented growth of renewables and the success of the Paris Agreement to the still unpredictable future of gas and oil prices. Europe and Turkey are heavily influenced by these phenomena, and so are their relations. A more climate-friendly position by Turkey would increase chances for cooperation with the EU – still the de facto global climate leader. A greater role for gas would boost the EU and Turkey’s need for diversification, and thus possibly for cooperation. Turkey’s significant focus on coal could, however, move the country instead closer to the anti-climate stance opened up by President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement, thus leading to a conflict scenario with the EU. The energy transition could provide a robust framework for the EU’s and Turkey’s future energy and climate relations, and one that might possibly be open to a new role for platforms such as the G20. However, its final impact will be a result of the evolution of its individual components, and the choices that the EU and Turkey will make in regard to these.

Details: 
Cologne, University of Cologne, September 2017, 30 p.
Attachments: 
Issue: 
Online Paper 6
Publication date: 
29/09/2017

Introduction
1. The energy transition: a definition
2. Driver: the fall of renewables costs
2.1 The global perspective
2.2 The impact on the EU and Turkey
2.3 Renewables: the case for convergence
3. Driver: the impact of low and variable oil prices
3.1 The global perspective
3.2 The impact on the EU and Turkey
3.3 Oil prices: the case for cooperation
4. Driver: the role of gas and the outlook for LNG
4.1 The global perspective
4.2 The impact on the EU and Turkey
4.3 The future of gas: chances for convergence and conflict
5. Driver: the Paris Agreement and the destiny of global climate policies
5.1 The global perspective
5.2 The impact on the EU and Turkey
5.3 The destiny of the Paris Agreement: success for cooperation, failure for conflict
6. Driver: the possible new role of the G20
6.1 The global perspective
6.2 The impact on the EU and Turkey
6.3 A chance to talk: the role of the G20 in the climate and energy dialogue
Conclusion
References
About the Authors

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