Early Warning and Conflict Prevention in the Euro-Med Area

Introduction

I. Early Warning and Conflict Prevention in the Euro-Med Context, Roberto Aliboni
1. The political context of the EMP
1.1 The character of conflict
1.2 Fragmentation and heterogeneity
1.3 Perceptions and political relations in the EMP
2. The institutional context
2.1 The institutional agenda in the Charter talks
2.2 Remarks on some instruments the EMP may develop in the field of EW and CP
2.3 The interaction between the EU and EMP institutional set-ups
3. What EW/CP arrangements in the Euro-Med Partnership?
3.1 Where should EW facilities be located?
3.2 The concept of early warning that fits the Euro-Mediterranean context
3.3 EW civilian targets
3.4 An inter-state-first approach

II. Tools for a Conflict Prevention System for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: The Euro-Med Conflict Prevention Chain and The Med Country Conflict Profile, Laura Guazzone
1. The conceptual framework of conflict prevention
1.1 Basic concepts
1.2 Recent trends
1.3 Conflict prevention in the Euro-Mediterranean framework
2. The conceptual framework of patterns of conflict
2.1 Patterns of conflict in the Mediterranean & Middle East area in the post-Cold War period
2.1.1 Global Patterns and Early Warning
2.1.2 Regional Patterns of Conflict and Early Warning
3. The Euro-Med Conflict Prevention Chain
3.1 Reference models
3.2 Early warning tools of the Euro-Med Chain
3.3 The Conflict Prevention Background Paper Format
4. The Med Country Conflict Profile (CCP): model and software
4.1 An overview
4.1.1 CCP: Main features
4.1.2 CCP: Criteria and mechanisms
4.1.3 CCP: Progress report

Charts 1-3 - Sample of Data Elaborated by the CCP software, Laura Guazzone and Daniela Pioppi
Appendix 1 - A Survey of Tensions and Conflicts in the Enlarged Mediterranean Region, Daniela Pioppi
Appendix 2 - List of Indicators, Laura Guazzone and Daniela Pioppi
Appendix 3 - A Review of Early Warning Projects/Models and Databases, Daniela Pioppi
Abbreviations and Acronyms
References