The Nuclear Threat in the Russia-Ukraine War: Rhetoric, Reality, and Implications for European Security

In the early morning of 24 February 2022, Russia launched its brutal attack on Ukraine, preceded by a televised address from President Putin warning the West against interfering in what he called a “special operation”, with a clear nuclear threat that would shape the tone of Moscow’s entire war campaign. Since then, nuclear rhetoric has become a recurring feature of Russian official discourse, with Moscow drawing shifting “red lines” and framing everything from newly annexed territories to Western arms supplies as potential triggers for war – even nuclear conflict. Simultaneously, Russia’s seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and ongoing hostilities around other Ukrainian nuclear facilities have raised the specter of a new Chernobyl, a threat Moscow has wielded as leverage to pressure the West. These actions – including the attempted capture of the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant in Mykolaiv as part of the push toward a “land corridor” to Transnistria – could become pivotal in future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, influencing not only the terms of peace but also the broader postwar European security architecture.