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China’s Economic Engagement as Strategic Deterrence in Afghanistan

Recent developments in Afghanistan offer valuable insights into the application of economic measures as a form of strategic deterrence. While the United States’ (US) withdrawal in 2021 underscored the limitations of coercive deterrence in maintaining long-term stability, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has since adopted a more nuanced approach leveraging economic statecraft as a strategic deterrent. Through trade, infrastructure investment and diplomatic engagement, the PRC has expanded its influence in Afghanistan – a country vital for its regional strategic interests. By engaging economically with the Taliban without granting formal recognition, the PRC has fostered economic dependencies that function as part of a carrot-and-stick approach to deterrence, aimed particularly at shaping the behaviour of violent non-state actors. This strategy redefines the approach towards established deterrence models and highlights a new dimension to the PRC’s Afghan policy, though its success remains partial given persistent security risks in the region.
Keywords: Taliban; deterrence; China-Afghanistan relations; BRI; China’s economic tools