Titolo completo
The Middle East and North Africa in 2025: The Promise and Perils of a «New» Middle East
This chapter covers geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) between mid-2024 and July 2025, with a particular emphasis on Israel's post-October 7 wars in Gaza and with individual members of the Axis of Resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran. A first section will address the further hardening of Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip against the backdrop of Donald J. Trump's return to the White House and deepening US involvement in Israel's multi-front wars, culminating in the 12-day war with Iran. A second section will move to analyse recent developments in Lebanon and post-Assad Syria, examining the risks that lay ahead amidst enduring internal divisions and mounting external pressure to Leverage Iranian setbacks and draw Beirut and Damascus closer to the Arab states and Israel. A final section will examine global divisions on Palestine, addressing the growing waves of international criticism for Israeli actions and the slow emergence of parallel initiatives on Palestine promoted by the Hague Group and the French-Saudi Initiative. Against this backdrop, the analysis will also reflect on EU policy, divisions and threat perceptions from the MENA region and wider international system, addressing the growing trends of polarization and conflictual multipolarity within the region as well as in North and Sub-Saharan Africa, amidst increased regional activism by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Sudan and ongoing tensions and divisions between Morocco and Algeria over the Western Sahara. Received June 2025; reviewed July 2025; accepted August 2025.
