Israel and Iran's Nuclear Weapon Programme: Roll Back or Containment?
The latest IAEA Report suggests that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon capability. Preventing the Islamic Republic from becoming nuclear is the most important issue on Israel’s agenda, and Jerusalem will do everything it can to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Considering the limited impact of international sanctions and covert operations, it is therefore possible that at some point in the next 12-15 months Israel’s policy-makers and military officials will decide whether or not to act militarily to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Though the probability of successfully destroying all of Iran’s nuclear targets is not very high, Israeli policy-makers and military officials would nevertheless still be extremely satisfied with delaying Iran’s nuclear programme. But would it be worth all the trouble it would inevitably unleash? While Israeli fears are understandable, given the heavy costs and poor chances for success of the military option, containment still represents the most sensible policy for Israel.
DetailsRoma, Istituto Affari Internazionali, July 2011, 15 p.
1. The History of the Iranian Nuclear Programme
2. Preventing Iran from Becoming Nuclear
2.1. Diplomacy & International Sanctions
2.2. Covert Operations
2.3. Assessing the Military Option