The International Spectator, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 2010
31/12/2010
Special issue on The Future Multilateral Order
Forging Networked Security in a Nobody-in-Charge World Free
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45/4
The Future Multilateral Order
Forging Networked Security in a Nobody-in-Charge World
Daniel Hamilton
There is much discussion of a 'multipolar' world in which great
power consortia will manage global affairs. Reality will be
different. The evolving international order is less likely to be
shaped by great power condominium than driven by inbetween peoples
and spaces in a nobody-in-charge world. In an era of more fluid
alignments, secondary states and non-state actors are setting
their own agendas, even as the nature of many regional and global
challenges has changed. Statecentric approaches must give room to
network-based solutions providing more effective interactions
among a broader range of actors, including governments, the
private sector and non-governmental organisations.
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China's Search for a Multilateral World: Dilemmas and Desires
Li Mingjiang and Chen Gang
While China will probably become more proactive in its
multilateral diplomacy and increase its influence in global
multilateral settings, various concerns and constraints make it
unlikely that it will completely overhaul or even dramatically
reshape the multilateral architecture at the global level. Stuck
in defining its identity, China is caught up between posturing as
a leader of the developing world on some policy issues and siding
with the developed countries on others. China's involvement in
global multilateralism is likely to be guided by pragmatism rather
than grand visions.
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Russian Approaches to Global Governance in the 21st Century
Andrei Zagorski
The shifting distribution of power challenges Russia's great power
ambition and exposes it to growing competition in an increasingly
polycentric world. But the emergence of 'rising powers' also
provides Russia with greater room for manoeuvre. While remaining a
status quo power determined to minimise changes in the
international system, Russia is forced to adapt to ongoing change
which it cannot halt. This has led to a policy of preserving the
benefits of permanent membership on the UN Security Council while,
at the same time, increasingly engaging in informal multilateral
institutions of global governance, such as the G4, G8 and G20.
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Multilateralism and the EU: a 'Cheap Date'?
John Peterson
Future historians may consider 2010 a defining moment in the
evolution of attitudes towards multilateralism. Natural disasters,
China's economic rise, and continued sluggish growth elsewhere
might well condition future attitudes. Beyond the headlines, three
points seem clear. First, building multilateralism is a long game:
there is a considerable lag between changed perceptions about the
desirability of multilateral cooperation and its realisation.
Second, building multilateralism requires political impulse and
leadership. Third, the extension of multilateralism requires the
right domestic as well as international political conditions.
Current political and economic conditions suggest that patience is
in order in the quest to build a more multilateral order.
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Emerging Markets and Global Governance. An Indian Perspective
Arundhati Ghose
China's emergence as an economic and military power has given rise
to apprehensions globally, related not only to China's cultural
and historical 'alienness', but also to its apparent willingness
to challenge the global system and architecture of global
governance. While non-Western countries are wary of the possible
impact on them and on the global order of Chinese actions, they
appear to be willing to cooperate with China on some global issues
in order to change a system often seen as inequitable and
unbalanced. Yet, the West seems to conflate the
idea of a rising China with that of other emerging markets. Given
their historical, political and cultural experiences, however,
their access to power and influence, if and when it happens, need
not necessarily take the same route as China. This is true
particularly of India; India is likely, at least for the
foreseeable future, to remain within the existing paradigm of
global governance, though it may seek to adapt the rules and
structures to better reflect its economic, political and security
interests. This would not preclude cooperation on a selective
basis on specific global issues with different partners,
particularly in the realm of global challenges such as climate
change, non-proliferation, international trade and finance and the
global commons, such as space, the oceans and cyberspace.
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The Changing Nature of Multilateralism and Brazilian Foreign Policy
Tullo Vigevani and Haroldo Ramanzini Júnior
An important characteristic of the current international setting
is the crisis of the structure in existence, rather than the
emergence of a new order. The rise of new interests and demands,
as well as the speed of the transformation, make the current
understanding of global governance more complex. Brazil, like
other medium powers, has an interest in institutionalised
multilateralism as a means of increasing its bargaining capacity
and hindering the unilateralism of major powers, without being
antagonistic to them. It is attempting to increase its weight
in traditional international bodies, which provide the grounding
for international legitimacy, as well as in new informal
arrangements. While this strategy could lead to the establishment
of a new hierarchy that brings in countries of growing relative
importance, it has put the weight of regional integration into
another perspective in Brazilian foreign policy.
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South Africa's Multilateral Challenges in a 'Polypolar' World
Yolanda Kemp Spies
The emerging global order is challenging multilateralism in the
sense that power is becoming situational: centres of gravity are
overlapping and transient, and the transnational interdependence
that characterises this 'polypolar' world challenges small and
great powers alike. Emerging powers are forming a 'new middle',
straddling the North-South divide with dynamic new multilateral
formations, and prioritising economic self-interest. South Africa
is at risk of being relegated to a new global periphery if it
gives priority to political solidarity with the global South
rather than economic pragmatism in its multilateral strategies.
Its comparative advantage in the diplomatic arena is its middle
power credentials. If it rationalizes its multilateralism to focus
on diplomatic niche areas it can enhance its political influence
in global governance institutions, despite its small economic
stature.
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Turkey's Neighbourhood and Beyond: Tectonic Transformation at Work?
Suat Kiniklioglu
Turkey's neighbourhood policy is being debated intensely in both
the East and the West. Indeed, since the rise of the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) in 2002, Turkey has gradually implemented
a neighbourhood policy that has been changing the parameters in
its immediate environs. It has been deepening its political
dialogue, increasing its trade and encouraging direct
people-to-people contact with its neighbours. Rather than painting
Turkey's neighbourhood policy as a sign of Turkey turning away
from the West, the sophistication and originality of this
endeavour should be appreciated. Turkey's geography, history and
its evolving regional identity are conducive to it becoming a
cross-cutting power in a multipolar or nonpolar world.
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Book Reviews
Obama's Foreign Policy Report Card
Anna Sims
Review of: America and a changed world : a question of
leadership, edited by Robin Niblett, Wiley-Blackwell and
Chatham House, 2010
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Re-examining Soft Power in the Age of Obama
Gregorio Bettiza
Review of: Soft power and US foreign policy : theoretical,
historical and contemporary perspectives, edited by Inderjeet
Parmar and Michael Cox, Routledge, 2010
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Neoconservatism: Once and (Hopefully) Never Again
Mario Del Pero
Review of: Neoconservatism : the biography of a movement,
Justin Vaisse, Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2010
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Testing EU Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Bruno Oliveira Martins
Review of: European Union policy towards the Arab-Israeli peace
process : the quicksands of politics, Costanza Musu,
Palgrave MacMillan, 2010
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