Democracy Support or Authoritarian Enabling? The Impact and Perceptions of Non-EU Actors in Lebanon, Palestine, and Tunisia
This report investigates the role of non-EU external actors in shaping democratic and authoritarian trajectories in three countries of the EU Southern Neighbourhood: Lebanon, Palestine, and Tunisia. The analysis focuses on the discursive and behavioural practices of eight key actors – China, the Council of Europe, Iran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the League of Arab States, Qatar, the United Nations, and the United States – and examines how these practices have influenced political developments in the three case countries between 2010 and 2024. Rather than assuming a binary divide between democracy promotion and autocracy support, the report situates non-EU external actors’ engagement within a broader regional context marked by conflict, power competition, and the dynamics of democratisation and autocratisation. It also connects these practices to local perceptions, drawing on fieldwork and survey data to assess how external influence is understood and experienced by different communities of practice in Lebanon, Palestine, and Tunisia.
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Details
(with Samuele Carlo Abrami et al.) SHAPEDEM-EU Publications, No. 45 (September 2025), 168 p.
Executive Summary
Introduction
I. The roles and perceptions of non-EU actors in Lebanon
1. Iran: partisanship and influence through a multifaceted modus operandi
2. Qatar’s Balancing Act in Lebanon: Mediation, Stabilisation, or Self-Interest?
3. The US in Lebanon: Balancing between stabilisation and regional interests
4. Saudi Arabia’s policies in Lebanon. Supporting the friends while curbing the enemies
5. The United Nations’ role Lebanon: a delicate balance between assistance and risks of politicisation
6. Conclusion
Annex 1. Local Perception of non-EU External Actors in Lebanon (2011-2024)
Annex 2. Local Perception of non-EU External Actors in Lebanon: Media Analysis
II. The roles and perceptions of non-EU actors in Palestine
1. Iran in Palestine: Resistance over Governance
2. Qatar’s Role in Palestine: Balancing Aid, Mediation, and Political Influence
3. The Arab League and Palestine: From historical support to internal divisions
4. The US policy in Palestine: shaped by securitisation and conditioned by Israel
5. The UN’s efforts in Palestine
6. China in Palestine: supporting Palestinian rights while enabling Israel’s authoritarian practices
7. Conclusion
Annex 2. Local Perception of non-EU External Actors in Palestine (2011-2024)
Annex 3. Local Perception of Non-EU External Actors in Palestine: Media Analysis
III. The roles and perceptions of non-EU actors in Tunisia
1. China’s Engagement in Tunisia
2. The Council of Europe’s Rule of Law Promotion in Tunisia: Assessing the Impact on Tunisian Democracy
3. Democracy Resistance and Ideological Opposition: Saudi Arabia’s Role in Tunisia
4. Qatar in Tunisia: From Selective Democracy Support to Authoritarian Accommodation
5. The US in Tunisia: Prioritising Security over Democracy
6. Conclusion
Annex. Local Perception of non-EU External Actors in Tunisia (2011-2024)
IV. General conclusions