Titolo completo

The Russian Way to Military Recruitment and the Spectre of Mobilisation

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, it has waged a war of attrition with human costs unmatched since the end of the Second World War, yet has avoided a general mobilisation because of the domestic political crisis triggered by the partial mobilisation decree of September 2022. Instead, the Kremlin has built a multi-layered recruitment system that ranges from more conventional levers, such as the permanent enlistment and its accompanying legislative reforms, to increasingly unconventional ones, culminating in the predatory exploitation of foreign citizens. This paper argues that, despite the effectiveness shown so far by this hybrid model, the persistent imbalance between frontline losses and new enlistments raises doubts about its medium-term sustainability. As a result, Moscow is confronted with a choice between mobilising directly (or indirectly) and accepting the current military stalemate, a decision the Kremlin has probably been postponing until the elections and will now likely have to address.