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Temporal Power and Coercive Diplomacy in Russia’s War against Ukraine

Temporal manipulation has functioned as a strategic instrument of coercive diplomacy in Russia’s conduct of the war in Ukraine, rather than merely as a by-product of military stalemate. Through the deliberate management of negotiation rhythms, deadlines and diplomatic procedures, Russia has shaped bargain dynamics throughout the conflict. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of negotiation timelines, diplomatic procedures and public diplomatic performances, three interrelated mechanisms of temporal power are identified: tempo control, temporal conquest and performative reinforcement. These mechanisms are illustrated through two empirical cases: the Istanbul talks of March 2022 and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. While the former demonstrates how participation without institutional follow-through generated diplomatic cover and procedural ambiguity, the latter shows how cycles of suspension and renewal transformed a functional agreement into a recurring source of leverage. Temporal asymmetry emerges as a significant feature of Russia’s diplomatic practice, highlighting the importance of time as a distinct dimension of coercive diplomacy.
Keywords: temporal politics, coercive diplomacy, Russia-Ukraine war, negotiation strategy, diplomatic tempo, international mediation, statecraft