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With Soldiers Like These? Challenges of Conscription in China and Taiwan

China and Taiwan have continued to conscript soldiers although their numbers (700,000 vs. 9,800) and proportion in their armed forces (about 35 per cent vs. 5 per cent) are quite different. In the People’s Republic of China, the draft preserves the People’s Liberation Army’s access to the kind of STEM-skilled soldiers who are unlikely to volunteer and facilitates the monitoring of disaffected youths. Conscription reforms have reflected demographic changes, the requirements of mastering advanced weapons and the evolution of the strategic environment. Qualms about the quality of the PLA’s conscripted soldiers suggest that a PLA invasion of Taiwan in 2027 or, indeed, in the rest of this decade, will be highly unlikely.