IEA’s Quarterly Gas Report
Following the gas supply shock of 2022, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2023 due to timely policy action, effectively working market forces and favourable weather conditions. Gas prices significantly moderated down compared to their 2022 highs -albeit remained well-above their historic averages in Asia and Europe. Hub liquidity improved across all key markets amidst higher trading activity.
Despite this gradual rebalancing, the market remained fundamentally tight from a supply perspective, as the increase in global LNG production was not sufficient to offset the continued decline in Russian piped gas deliveries to Europe. LNG production growth fell short of previous expectations due to a combination of project delays and feedgas supplies issues. Prices continued to display an elevated volatility through 2023, reflecting supply uncertainty.
Natural gas markets are expected to return to growth in 2024, although the expansion of gas use will be capped in the import markets by the limited increase in global LNG supply. Demand growth is expected to be concentrated in the fast-growing markets of the Asia Pacific and the gas-rich countries of Africa and the Middle East. The increase in gas demand will be supported by industry, as well as the residential and commercial sectors. Downside risks to global LNG supply remain, including due to rising tensions along key shipping routes.
The IEA’s Quarterly Gas Report provides a thorough review of market developments in 2023 and a short-term outlook for 2024. Part of the IEA’s Low-Emission Gases Work Programme, the Report includes a section on short-term developments related to biomethane, low-emission hydrogen and e-methane.
Luca Franza, Scientific Advisor, Istituto Affari Internazionali
Gergely Molnar, Gas Analyst, IEA
Debate and Q&A moderator:
Coby van der Linde, Director, Clingendael International Energy Programme, CIEP