Russia's role in the Caucasus and its influence in Azerbaijan are strengthened by the reduction of Western commitments and the decline in international attention to the geopolitics of oil and gas. Moscow, however, pays insufficient attention to the evolving civil war in the North Caucasus and tends to miss the new conflict dynamics in the South Caucasus, while focussing on the partnership with Turkey. President Putin expects to gain prestige in Baku from his stance as a champion in the struggle against revolutions and Islamic radicalism but cannot admit that his profile is damaged by the unfolding political crisis in Russia.
Versione rivista di un paper presentato alla conferenza su "Azerbaijan in a Multipolar World: Challenges and Opportunities", Roma, 30 gennaio 2013.
Documento prodotto nell'ambito del progetto "Azerbaijan, Caucasus and the EU: Towards Close Cooperation? ".
1. The diminishing geopolitics of hydrocarbons
2. The explosive mix of revolutions and Islam
3. The dead-end of Nagorno Karabakh
4. Turkish connections
5. The Iranian conundrum
6. What comes after stability?