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The South Caucasus Reconstructed: Polarity and Regional Security Order after the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020

Regional Security Complexes (RSC) are constantly evolving. Following the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the South Caucasus has transformed from a sub-complex within the unipolar and Russia-centred post-Soviet RSC into a distinct and bipolar RSC, with Turkey joining it as a regional pole on par with Russia. This development was a function of a combination of objective (Turkey’s engagement in the 2020 war and increased politico-military presence in the region), subjective (Turkey’s self-positioning as a regional pole) and intersubjective (Russia’s and Turkey’s mutual recognition of the pole status) factors, and calls for a reconsideration of the structure of not only the South Caucasus RSC but also the whole post-Soviet area.
Keywords: South Caucasus; regionalism; regional security complex; polarity; post-Soviet space