Approaches to Regional Stability and the Outlook for NATO

Negli ultimi anni all’interno e attorno al perimetro d’azione della Nato l’instabilità del quadro di sicurezza internazionale è aumentata e si è estesa in molti modi, che vanno da perduranti conflitti e fallimenti di stati a improvvisi cambi di strategia di specifici paesi. Data la crescente connessione tra le dinamiche locali e internazionali, la dimensione regionale della stabilità è diventata sempre più importante sia per gli esperti che per gli addetti ai lavori. Proprio a livello regionale gli stati possono trovare un terreno comune per promuovere sforzi congiunti verso la stabilizzazione o almeno ridurre il divergere dei progetti nazionali, che a sua volta contribuisce all’instabilità. Guardando all’ampio insieme di sicurezza regionale che comprende Sahel, Nord Africa e Medio Oriente, è evidente come sia sempre più instabile, in quanto rappresenta lo spazio fisico in cui molteplici forme di instabilità si fondono a livello locale, nazionale, regionale e globale. Al fine di comprendere tale rete di instabilità, è necessario guardare a più attori specifici, sia statali che non statali, ad attori locali e internazionali, comprese la Nato e l’Ue, e al loro ruolo in termini di stabilizzazione/destabilizzazione.

Questa pubblicazione è il risultato della sesta conferenza accademica organizzata a Bertinoro (Forlì) il 24-26 ottobre 2018 da NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), Università di Bologna e Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).

Dati bibliografici: 
Bruxelles/Roma, NATO/IAI, luglio 2019, 116 p.
Allegati: 
Numero: 
19|13
Data pubblicazione: 
11/07/2019

Introduction, by Sonia Lucarelli, Alessandro Marrone and Francesco N. Moro
The metrics of stability: A multidimensional perspective
Organised crime, corruption and illegal migration: what implications for defence capacity building?
Instability factors and international terrorism: the outlook for international organisations
References

Working Group I
1. Security and Stability for Whom? Concepts and Observables, by Andrea Ruggeri
Defining stability
Stability: power, uncertainty and identity
Political violence and stability
The risk of negative definition
Stability and International Relations theory
A working definition and levels of analysis
Measurements and trends
Security and stability for the citizens
Security and stability for a domestic regime
Security and stability for international actors
Data issues to keep in mind
Final remarks
References
2. Disaggregating Measures of Political (In)stability: Lessons from Electoral Violence, by Ursula Daxecker
Measuring (in)stability in international relations
Why electoral instability matters
Describing electoral instability
The benefits of disaggregation – Evidence from India and Nigeria
Beyond disaggregation: linking micro and macro
Conclusion
References
3. Report of the Working Group I: Metrics of Stability in a Multi-Dimensional Perspective, by Stefano Costalli
How to measure “stability”? The state of the art
Mutable situation on the ground, mutable metrics
Proposals to improve the metrics of stability
Conclusion

Working Group II
4. Organised Crime and Political Instability in the Sahel–Sahara Region, by Francesco Strazzari
The criminal phantom in the Sahel region?
Intimate connections as governance on the cheap
Conclusion
References
5. A Development Research Perspective on Addressing Irregular Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Defence Institution Building and Beyond, by Benjamin Schraven
European efforts in development cooperation and migration control to address irregular migration from Africa
Migration and development – a “positive” relationship
It is not only the economy, stupid: Complex causes of (irregular) migration and forced displacement
Conclusion
References
6. Report of the Working Group II: Defence Institution Building and the Challenges of Organised Crime, Corruption and Illegal Migration, by Enrico Fassi
Ongoing efforts and lessons learned
Implications for NATO

Working Group III
7. The Regional Security Complex and a Zero-Sum Game Approach: Implications for NATO, by Dario Cristiani
The horizontal contagion: Fragmentation and pluralisation in North Africa and the Middle East
The vertical contagion: The greater North Africa security complex
Exporting divisions? Europe and the increasing competition in the area
NATO and the evolving reality of the Mediterranean
Conclusion
References
8. The Regional Security Complex and the Drivers of Terrorism, by Vincent Durac
The regional security complex in the Middle East and North Africa – Instability, conflict and international terrorism
Drivers of radicalisation and terrorism in the MENA region
The response of the European Union to terrorism, radicalisation and instability in the MENA region
Conclusion
References
9. Report of the Working Group III: Middle East and North Africa – Instability Factors, Counter Terrorism and International Organisations’ Coordination, by Alessandro Marrone
State of the art in the region
Implications for a possible NATO role

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