The Impact of Global Drivers on the Future of EU-Turkey Security Relations

This paper examines whether global security dynamics will act as either centripetal forces to the Turkey-EU relations on threat perceptions and security concerns, keeping the relationship aligned, or whether they will act as centrifugal forces pushing Tukey and the EU further apart on security. More precisely, the paper surveys the roles of (i) the US and NATO, (ii) Russia, and (iii) global security shifts as well as new (in-)security trends in this context. The paper argues that these three groups of global security dynamics will push Turkey-EU relations in a more conflictual direction, if cooperation—often more out of necessity than want—will continue to keep the relationship away from the brink, resulting in a form of conflictual cooperation. The paper concludes with a few initial recommendations.