CP Med
The Iai “Country Conflict Profile (Ccp)” Methodology

The IAI CCP methodology serves as an early warning tool designed to analyse and assess potential conflicts in the Euro-Med region using standardised parameters.

The underlying conceptual assumptions of the CCP methodology are illustrated in Aliboni, R., Guazzone, L. and Pioppi, D., Early Warning and Conflict Prevention in the Euro-Med Area, A Research Report by the Istituto Affari Internazionali, IAI Quaderni, English Series n.2, December 2001.

It consists of two parts:

 

1) The Country Conflict Profile (CCP) model of analysis

The Country Conflict Profile model of analysis evaluates the overall proclivity to conflict of a given country in a given historical moment, according to standardised parameters. It is based on a list of indicators (conflict facilitating factors) which appear as questions in a questionnaire. The CCP model of analysis assesses five main aspects of the conflict potential of a country: (1) the overall country conflict potential; (2) the country short term vulnerability (escalatory potential); (3) the sources of risk; (4) the actors of conflict; (5) the individual potential conflicts.

The CCP model of analysis is also translated into a dedicated sofware (CCP software).

 
2) The Conflict Profile Paper (CPP) format

The Conflict Profile Paper (CPP) format is a short written document that builds on the CCP model of analysis to provide a concise analysis and a basic assessment of an individual potential conflict. The CPP format still needs to be fully developed and tested. The first examples of Conflict Profiles for Jordan and Egypt are published in Conflict in Focus. The methodology of the CPP combines standardised inputs, mainly deriving from data provided by the CCP, with qualitative analysis provided in a narrative form. The blueprint of the CPP format is the following:

  1. identification data of the potential conflict (data from CCP)
    • name of conflict
    • stage of conflict
    • history stage (new, new phase etc.)
    • main actors
    • escalatory potential
    • victims
  2. concise history of potential conflict (narrative)
  3. synopsis of sources of risk (data from CCP)
    • by category
    • by problem area
    • by disputed issue
  4. analysis of the problem areas and disputed issues (narrative)
  5. list of the actors of conflict (data from CCP)
    • by role (adversaries, allies, mediators...)
    • by issue
  6. analysis of nature, actions, and agenda of the actors of conflict (narrative).

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