Editorial Note

Essays
Conflict and Reform in Eastern Europe

Domestic Politics and European Integration in Ukraine
Kataryna Wolczuk
The Orange Revolution in 2004 introduced a new dynamic into Ukraine's relations with the EU but has not led to the breakthrough in relations that had been hoped for in Ukraine. The main focus of relations, under the auspices of the European Neighbourhood Policy, is the jointly agreed Action Plan (AP), which lists objectives that Ukraine is required to implement to deepen its integration with the EU. However, the Ukrainian authorities have found it difficult to close the gap between rhetoric and deeds. European integration - although supported by all key political actors - has not yet become a priority for most of them. Even though, unlike integration with NATO, European integration is not openly contested in Ukraine, implementation of the AP remains hostage to vested political and economic interests and administrative bottlenecks. And yet, the ENP is making a difference in Ukraine. For the very first time in Ukraine-EU relations, the AP has provided much needed guidelines and a focus for domestic policymaking in Ukraine. Ukrainians have been keen to seize the opportunity provided by the ENP to prove themselves "good pupils" vis-à-vis the EU in the hope of moving closer to a membership perspective.

Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy Since the Orange Revolution
Taras Kuzio
President Yushchenko is focused on adopting reforms that should allow Ukraine to move forward with integration in the most important Western institutions. NATO and EU membership, especially, have been Ukraine's strategic goals since 1998 and 2002, but Yushchenko is more clearly ideologically driven towards these goals than his predecessors. However, Ukraine is still a divided country: one part would like to integrate more with the CIS, the other would like to integrate with the West. Support in the Parliament for NATO membership is still ambiguous; only two political parties are clearly oriented toward that goal, while other parties (including Premier Yanukovych's Party of Regions) seems to be less committed. Popular support for NATO membership, moreover, is generally low. Support for EU membership is higher, but relations with the EU are complicated by the European Union's enlargement fatigue and the EU's tendency to be complacent and passive towards Ukraine membership.

EU Initiatives for Border Management in its Eastern Neighbourhood
Oleksandr Sushko
The EU, given its experience in multilateral border management, can provide useful assistance to help eastern neighbours solve their border problems. The EU is currently involved in Transnistria, Ukraine and Moldova with policies and initiatives. A good example of this is the EU Border Assistance Mission (Eubam), an advisory body whose goal is to assist Ukraine and Moldova to harmonise their border management standards, improve risk analysis capacities and cooperation between different law enforcement agencies. Eubam has already achieved an improvement of security conditions on the ground. Another example of EU border-related policy in the area is the new Ukraine-Moldova customs regime, introduced with pressure from the EU, which increased transparency of import-export flows to and from Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria. The EU involvement in border-related and regional problems, with a firm political stance based on European values, mediation and technical and financial assistance, can thus lead to a positive outcome.

Peacekeeping in Transnistria: Cooperation or Competition?
Dov Linch
The so-called "frozen conflict" between Moldova and the breakaway Moldovan territory of Transnistria is of increasing strategic interest for the EU. In the last 15 years the separatist authorities of Transnistria managed to strengthen their position by acquiring features of statehood. They also strengthened their armed forces and militarised the conflict zone. Transnistrian leaders still aim to negotiate their exit from the Moldovan state, while Moldova's goal is to reach a compromise that would retain the area within Moldova proper. Prospects for a settlement are not rosy. The EU could seek to relaunch negotiations between the parties by providing a new negotiation mechanism, placing additional pressure on Transnistria while strengthening Moldova, and improving EU-Russia cooperation.

EU Neglect and Competing Mediation in Georgia's Conflicts
Nathalie Tocci
This article analyses another "frozen conflict" hub in the former Soviet space, namely Georgia's conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, focussing on the EU's impact on these two conflicts. As in the case of Transnistria, Georgia's conflicts have been afflicted by a paradoxical mix of international neglect, and competing mediation by Russia, the US and international organisations. The EU plays a minimal role in the South Caucasus, and as such it could not have fundamentally influenced conflict resolution in the region. Yet despite its loose contractual ties with Georgia and its modest levels of aid to the region, the EU's peacemaking potential has not been fully met. Beyond an insufficient degree of involvement, the EU has self-constrained its actions due to its insufficient interest in the region on the one hand, and its deference to Russia on the other.

Europe Forum

Beefing up the ENP: Towards a Modernisation and Stability Partnership
Barbara Lippert
This article presents a new framework for aligning neighbouring countries with the EU below the level of membership by proposing to develop a new type of association agreement for modernisation and stabilisation. This general framework would be tailor-made for those Eastern European neighbours which, in principle, have the option to apply for membership. Moreover, it is argued that the EU should engage in an overarching institution alongside the European Union. To this end the EU should establish a confederation of tasks to be built together with countries that share a European vocation but are not members of the EU.

Opinions

Diplomatic Opportunities After the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict
Roberto Aliboni
Upon Iranian and Shiite initiative, a widespread anti-Western front is currently emerging in the Middle East. This is the result of the mistaken US-led intervention in Iraq. To deal with this development, the West should opt for strategies based on political and diplomatic instruments while dropping those based on military force and coercion. The cease-fire in Lebanon after the Israeli-Lebanese conflict of the summer 2006 and the UN intervention offer a favourable opportunity for undertaking the change in strategy and for starting a new diplomacy in the Middle East: the European intervention in support of the Israeli-Lebanese cease-fire may work as a window of opportunity for starting a diplomatic cycle aimed at stabilising, initially, the Levant and, then, the Middle East and doing it in a perspective of restored transatlantic solidarity.

Book Review and Notes

Time to Talk More Georgia, Less Russia
Anna Matveeva

IAI Library Notes
Alessandra Bertino and Maritza Cricorian

Index 2006

List of Contributors 2006