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The International Spectator

Vol. 42, No. 4, December 2007

Essays

The Middle East between Transformation and Crisis

The Role of Hezbollah in Lebanese Domestic Politics
Augustus Richard Norton
Hezbollah emerged in 1982 as a manifestation of Iran's influence and a response to Israel's massive invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah (cooperating with Syria) won legitimacy by resisting Israel's occupation, but it also offered Shias a credible ideology and an array of institutions. The party is now deeply embedded in Lebanese politics. After Israel's unilateral withdrawal in 2000, Hezbollah continued to assert its "national resistance" role, but this claim has been openly challenged, especially after the 2006 war. Since then, the government and the opposition have been at a dangerous impasse, with compromise elusive and the dangers of new violence growing.
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The US Approach Toward Islamic Militancy: Current Policies in Historical Perspective
Shireen Hunter
Following the events of 9/11, the US declared a global war on terror, and a new strategy based on preemption for defeating Muslim extremism and terrorism. However, the new US strategy so far has not been more successful than earlier strategies, in combating either Muslim extremism or international terrorism. Arguably, it may even have contributed to the strengthening of the appeal of Islamic extremism and certain terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. The principal reason for this lack of success has been the historically inconsistent and contradictory approach of the US to dealing with the problem of Muslim militancy and its manipulation of it for short-term objectives.
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Globalisation and the Restructuring of State Power in the Arab World
Laura Guazzone and Daniela Pioppi
The dynamics of change in the Arab world today are part of a much larger global process - the neo-liberal phase of globalisation - that started in the 1980s and engendered a process of state power restructuring, both for peripheral "weak" states and core industrialised countries. Beyond national differences, the restructuring of the Arab states has implied the consolidation of neo-authoritarian political regimes characterised by fragmentation of the power structure and by an increase in informal modes of government (neo-patrimonialism, corruption), accompanied by the parallel political and economic marginalisation of large sectors of society. These less centralised and more elitist regimes are likely to be more dependent and vulnerable than their predecessors to external pressures and foreign influence.
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Opinions

Choosing Transformation over Crisis in the Levant
Nomi Bar-Yaacov and Gideon Lichfield
A brief window of opportunity for an Israeli-Palestinian peace process has opened up since the Hamas-Fatah confrontation in Gaza in June. Yet the governments of both Israel and Palestine are weak, and if they fall, this could cause further instability and violence. More robust international involvement is required, including closer coordination and consultation between the Quartet and the Arab Quartet. A comprehensive process towards a final-status deal must be undertaken. This would include a new timetable for implementation of existing framework agreements, an international implementation and enforcement mechanism with close monitoring and compliance facilities, and a built-in conflict resolution mechanism to help the parties overcome disagreements in the process. Once serious progress is made on the peace front with the current Palestinian government, a concerted effort will have to be made to promote Fatah-Hamas reconciliation with a view to reintegrating Hamas into the political process.
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The European Union and Iran: What Next?
Walter Posch
EU-Iranian relations have reached a stalemate. EU engagement with Iran makes sense as long as it is accompanied by stringent sanctions that are imposed by the international community (i.e. E3+3 format and UNSC) and that focus on the nuclear file only. In the end, such an approach could allow the EU to find that delicate balance between the US position of imposing sanctions for the sake of sanctioning, thereby rendering them ineffective, and a Russian-Chinese position of applying minimal sanctions that would make them equally inefficient.
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Saudi Arabia Walks the Tightrope
Paul Aarts
Saudi diplomacy seems more active than ever. This has to do with three recent major regional developments: the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah in the occupied Palestinian territories, and the Iraqi quagmire. In each of these, the role of Iran is difficult to overlook and this is troubling Riyadh. Yet Saudi Arabia has difficulty in responding to Iran's assertiveness: it wants to contain Tehran's ambitions, but at the same time it cannot allow itself to clash with it. As a result, it is treading a fine line.
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Italy in World Affairs

EU Foreign Policy in the Italian Parliament: The Debates on China and Iran
Flavia Zanon
Governments have always been more reluctant to accept parliamentary oversight in foreign policy than in any other domestic policy field. This examination of the recent performance of the Italian Parliament in CFSP scrutiny and control in the two case studies of the EU's arms embargo against China and negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program shows that institutional arrangements concerning parliamentary control in this field have significant shortcomings. Although limited, the reforms under discussion in the new intergovernmental conference could contribute to improving the performance of parliaments and to creating a common awareness of the problem of democratic deficit in CFSP among the parliamentarians of EU member states.
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Europe Forum

Altiero Spinelli's European Federal Odyssey
John Pinder
Altiero Spinelli's federalist mission started during his years of internment on the island of Ventotene. This was where he wrote, together with Ernesto Rossi, the Ventotene Manifesto, a clarion call for European federation. Considering the war a product of unlimited national sovereignty, Spinelli saw a federal Europe as the key to avoiding another fratricidal war. From then on, Spinelli spent the rest of his life working tirelessly to achieve this ambitious goal. His bold and radical initiatives, from the European Political Community in 1951-53 to the Draft Treaty on the European Union in 1981-84, were perhaps too far ahead of their time to be successful, yet Spinelli's ideas did succeed in stimulating further European integration and the relaunching of the Community's federal development. His main legacy is the inspiration his life provides for those who wish to complete the building of a federal Europe.
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Book Reviews

Lessons for Peacebuilders
Costantino Pischedda
Review of: Making war and building peace : United Nations peace operations, Michael W. Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, Princeton University Press, 2006

The Tragedies of Alliance Politics
Francesco N. Moro
Review of: Alleati ma rivali : teoria delle alleanze e politica estera settecentesca, Marco Cesa, Il Mulino, 2007

Promoting Peace in the Backyard?
Karen Smith
Review of: The EU and conflict resolution : promoting peace in the backyard, Nathalie Tocci, Routledge, 2007

George Kennan, the Conscience of America
Emiliano Alessandri
Review of: George Kennan : a study of character, John Lukacs; Yale University Press, 2007

Recent Publications
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Volume 42 Contents

Index 2007
List of Contributors 2007



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